合肥大学学报

在制造业数字化转型加速推进的大背景下，基于2014—2023年华东地区省域面板数据，从数字经济和实体经济双维度出发，构建了综合评价指标体系。采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型，对融合发展水平进行测度，并结合核密度估计、马尔科夫链及障碍度模型，深入分析了数实融合的动态演进趋势、空间相关性与障碍因子。研究结果显示：华东地区数实融合水平总体上呈现不断深化的趋势；地区间的差距虽逐渐缩小，但区域差异依然显著；层级转移呈现出“高稳低难中易升”的典型特征。其中，规模以上工业企业单位密度成为影响华东地区数实融合的首要障碍因子，且由于各地区产业结构和政策的差异，障碍因子也呈现出不同的特点。

Against the backdrop of accelerating digital transformation in manufacturing, this study de‑velops a comprehensive evaluation framework based on provincial panel data from East China span‑ning 2014 to 2023, from the dual dimensions of the digital and real economies. Employ the entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model, the level of integrated development was mea‑sured. Combined with kernel density estimation, Markov chain analysis, and the obstacle degree mod‑el, this study further conducts an in-depth analysis of the dynamic evolution trends, spatial correla‑tions, and obstacle factors in the integration of digital and real economies. The findings reveal that the level of digital-real integration in East China is generally deepening. Although regional disparities are gradually narrowing, significant differences persist. The hierarchical transition exhibits the typical pat‑tern of “stable at high levels, difficult at low levels, and easy at intermediate levels”. Among the fac‑tors examined, the density of industrial enterprises above a designated size emerges as the primary ob‑stacle to digital-real integration in East China. Furthermore, due to differences in industrial structures and policies across regions, the characteristics of these obstacles also vary accordingly.